Investigating the social dilemma of an epidemic model with provaccination and antivaccination groups: An evolutionary approach

In this study, an epidemiological model with the provaccination and antivaccination susceptible groups is proposed, and the social dilemma of the model is analyzed. During a pandemic, such as the current COVID-19, many individuals get confused to choose the option of adopting a provaccination or antivaccination strategy based on the number of infected people and the payoff of being infected. In the proposed model, people can obtain immunity either through vaccination or by getting infected with the disease which is known as natural immunity. In addition, increasing the waning immunity influences the choice of adopting the provaccination or antivaccination strategy. We used the behavior model to analyze the choice of the two strategies, where any individual can choose a strategy based on the number of infected individuals from each group. Moreover, individuals who are already infected can choose their strategy based on the payoff of their disease cost or vaccination cost. Our results show that, at Nash equilibrium, individuals in both groups behave the same. Further, from our numerical results, increasing the number of vaccinations can reduce the social dilemma whereas an increase in the waning immunity rate increases the social dilemma.

Modeling the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant dynamics in the United States with booster dose vaccination and waning immunity.

We carried out a theoretical and numerical analysis for an epidemic model to analyze the dynamics of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant and the impact of vaccination campaigns in the United States. The model proposed here includes asymptomatic and hospitalized compartments, vaccination with booster doses, and the waning of natural and vaccine-acquired immunity. We also consider the influence of face mask usage and efficiency. We found that enhancing booster doses and using N95 face masks are associated with a reduction in the number of new infections, hospitalizations and deaths. We highly recommend the use of surgical face masks as well, if usage of N95 is not a possibility due to the price range. Our simulations show that there might be two upcoming Omicron waves (in mid-2022 and late 2022), caused by natural and acquired immunity waning with respect to time. The magnitude of these waves will be 53% and 25% lower than the peak in January 2022, respectively. Hence, we recommend continuing to use face masks to decrease the peak of the upcoming COVID-19 waves.

Sensitivity of endemic behaviour of COVID-19 under a multi-dose vaccination regime, to various biological parameters and control variables.

For an infectious disease such as COVID-19, we present a new four-stage vaccination model (unvaccinated, dose 1 + 2, booster, repeated boosters), which examines the impact of vaccination coverage, vaccination rate, generation interval, control reproduction number, vaccine efficacies and rates of waning immunity upon the dynamics of infection. We derive a single equation that allows computation of equilibrium prevalence and incidence of infection, given knowledge about these parameters and variable values. Based upon a 20-compartment model, we develop a numerical simulation of the associated differential equations. The model is not a forecasting or even predictive one, given the uncertainty about several biological parameter values. Rather, it is intended to aid a qualitative understanding of how equilibrium levels of infection may be impacted upon, by the parameters of the system. We examine one-at-a-time sensitivity analysis around a base case scenario. The key finding which should be of interest to policymakers is that while factors such as improved vaccine efficacy, increased vaccination rates, lower waning rates and more stringent non-pharmaceutical interventions might be thought to improve equilibrium levels of infection, this might only be done to good effect if vaccination coverage on a recurrent basis is sufficiently high.

An Age of Infection Kernel, an R Formula, and Further Results for Arino–Brauer A, B Matrix Epidemic Models with Varying Populations, Waning Immunity, and Disease and Vaccination Fatalities

In this work, we first introduce a class of deterministic epidemic models with varying populations inspired by Arino et al. (2007), the parameterization of two matrices, demography, the waning of immunity, and vaccination parameters. Similar models have been focused on by Julien Arino, Fred Brauer, Odo Diekmann, and their coauthors, but mostly in the case of "closed populations” (models with varying populations have been studied in the past only in particular cases, due to the difficulty of this endeavor). Our Arino–Brauer models contain SIR–PH models of Riano (2020), which are characterized by the phase-type distribution (Formula presented.), modeling transitions in "disease/infectious compartments”. The A matrix is simply the Metzler/sub-generator matrix intervening in the linear system obtained by making all new infectious terms 0. The simplest way to define the probability row vector (Formula presented.) is to restrict it to the case where there is only one susceptible class (Formula presented.), and when matrix B (given by the part of the new infection matrix, with respect to (Formula presented.)) is of rank one, with (Formula presented.). For this case, the first result we obtained was an explicit formula (12) for the replacement number (not surprisingly, accounting for varying demography, waning immunity and vaccinations led to several nontrivial modifications of the Arino et al. (2007) formula). The analysis of (Formula presented.) Arino–Brauer models is very challenging. As obtaining further general results seems very hard, we propose studying them at three levels: (A) the exact model, where only a few results are available—see Proposition 2;and (B) a "first approximation” (FA) of our model, which is related to the usually closed population model often studied in the literature. Notably, for this approximation, an associated renewal function is obtained in (7);this is related to the previous works of Breda, Diekmann, Graaf, Pugliese, Vermiglio, Champredon, Dushoff, and Earn. (C) Finally, we propose studying a second heuristic "intermediate approximation” (IA). Perhaps our main contribution is to draw attention to the importance of (Formula presented.) Arino–Brauer models and that the FA approximation is not the only way to tackle them. As for the practical importance of our results, this is evident, once we observe that the (Formula presented.) Arino–Brauer models include a large number of epidemic models (COVID, ILI, influenza, illnesses, etc.). © 2023 by the authors.

Determination of significant immunological timescales from mRNA-LNP-based vaccines in humans.

A compartment model for an in-host liquid nanoparticle delivered mRNA vaccine is presented. Through non-dimensionalisation, five timescales are identified that dictate the lifetime of the vaccine in-host: decay of interferon gamma, antibody priming, autocatalytic growth, antibody peak and decay, and interleukin cessation. Through asymptotic analysis we are able to obtain semi-analytical solutions in each of the time regimes which allows us to predict maximal concentrations and better understand parameter dependence in the model. We compare our model to 22 data sets for the BNT162b2 and mRNA-1273 mRNA vaccines demonstrating good agreement. Using our analysis, we estimate the values for each of the five timescales in each data set and predict maximal concentrations of plasma B-cells, antibody, and interleukin. Through our comparison, we do not observe any discernible differences between vaccine candidates and sex. However, we do identify an age dependence, specifically that vaccine activation takes longer and that peak antibody occurs sooner in patients aged 55 and greater.

Impact of Vaccination, Prior Infection and Therapy on Omicron Infection and Mortality.

BACKGROUND: Understanding the immunity against omicron infection and severe outcomes conferred by Covid-19 vaccination, prior SARS-CoV-2 infection, and monoclonal antibody therapy will inform intervention strategies. METHODS: We considered 295,691 patients who were tested for SARS-CoV-2 at Cleveland Clinic between October 1, 2021 and January 31, 2022. We used logistic regression to investigate the association of vaccination and prior infection with the risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection and used Cox regression to investigate the association of vaccination, prior infection and monoclonal antibody therapy with the risks of intensive care unit (ICU) stay and death. RESULTS: Vaccination and prior infection were less effective against omicron than delta infection but provided strong protection against ICU admission and death. Boosting greatly increased vaccine effectiveness against omicron infection and severe outcomes, though the effectiveness waned rapidly over time. Monoclonal antibody therapy considerably reduced the risks of ICU admission and death. Finally, the relatively low mortality of the omicron variant was due to both the reduced lethality of this variant and the increased population immunity acquired from booster vaccination and previous infection. CONCLUSIONS: Booster vaccination and prior SARS-CoV-2 infection provide strong protection against ICU admission and death from omicron infection. Monoclonal antibody therapy is also beneficial.

Dynamics of Naturally Acquired Immunity Against Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 in Children and Adolescents.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the duration of protection against reinfection conferred by a previous severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection in children and adolescents. STUDY DESIGN: We applied 2 complementary approaches: a matched test-negative, case-control design and a retrospective cohort design. A total of 458 959 unvaccinated individuals aged 5-18 years were included. The analyses focused on the period July 1, 2021, to December 13, 2021, a period of Delta variant dominance in Israel. We evaluated 3 SARS-CoV-2-related outcomes: documented polymerase chain reaction-confirmed infection or reinfection, symptomatic infection or reinfection, and SARS-CoV-2-related hospitalization or death. RESULTS: Overall, children and adolescents who were previously infected acquired durable protection against reinfection with SARS-CoV-2 for at least 18 months. Importantly, no SARS-CoV-2-related deaths were recorded in either the SARS-CoV-2-naïve group or the previously infected group. The effectiveness of naturally acquired immunity against a recurrent infection reached 89.2% (95% CI, 84.7%-92.4%) at 3-6 months after the first infection and declined slightly to 82.5% (95% CI, 79.1%-85.3%) by 9-12 months after infection, with a slight nonsignificant waning trend seen up to 18 months after infection. Additionally, children aged 5-11 years exhibited no significant waning of naturally acquired protection throughout the outcome period, whereas waning protection in those aged 12-18 years was more prominent but still mild. CONCLUSIONS: Children and adolescents who were previously infected with SARS-CoV-2 remain protected to a high degree for 18 months. Further research is needed to examine naturally acquired immunity against Omicron and newer emerging variants.

COVID-19 vaccines effectiveness against symptomatic disease and severe outcomes, 2021-2022: a test-negative case-control study.

OBJECTIVES: This study evaluated the effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines in preventing symptomatic and severe disease. STUDY DESIGN: This was an observational test-negative case-control study. METHODS: Study participants were adults with at least one symptom included in the World Health Organization COVID-19 definition who sought health care in a public emergency department between 1 November 2021 and 2 March 2022 (corresponding with the fifth pandemic wave in Portugal dominated by the Omicron variant). This study used multivariable logistic regression models to estimate and compare the odds ratio of vaccination between test-positive cases and test-negative controls to calculate the absolute and relative vaccine effectiveness. RESULTS: The study included 1059 individuals (522 cases and 537 controls) with a median age of 56 years and 58% were women. Compared with the effectiveness of the primary vaccination scheme that had been completed ≥180 days earlier, the relative effectiveness against symptomatic infection of a booster administered between 14 and 132 days earlier was 71% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 57%, 81%; P < 0.001). The effectiveness of the primary series against symptomatic infection peaked at 85% (95% CI: 56%, 95%) between 14 and 90 days after the last inoculation and decreased to 34% (95% CI: -43%, 50%) after ≥180 days. CONCLUSIONS: Despite the known immunological evasion characteristics of the Omicron variant, results from this study show that vaccine effectiveness increases after booster administration. COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness decreases to less than 50% between 3 and 6 months after completion of the primary cycle; therefore, this would be an appropriate time to administer a booster to restore immunity.

Comparative COVID-19 Vaccine Effectiveness Over Time in Veterans.

Background: Comparative effectiveness of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccines across patient subgroups is poorly understood and essential to precisely targeting vaccination strategies. Methods: We used the US Department of Veterans Affairs COVID-19 Shared Data Resource to identify veterans who utilize VA health care and had no documented severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 infection before December 11, 2020. Using a test-negative case-control design (TND), we used conditional logistic regression with adjustment for covariates to estimate vaccine effectiveness (VE) over time for veterans who received 2 doses of mRNA vaccines or 1 dose of Ad26.Cov2.S. Results: We identified 4.8 million veterans with a mean age of 64 years, of whom 58% had ≥1 chronic disease. Vaccine effectiveness for symptomatic infections, hospitalizations, and ICU admission or death declined over time and varied by the type of vaccine (P < 0.01). VE estimates against symptomatic infection during months 1 and 7 for mRNA-1273 compared with BNT162b2 were 89.7% (95% CI, 84.4%-93.0%) and 57.3% (95% CI, 48.4%-64.7%) vs 81.6% (95% CI, 75.9%-85.9%) and 22.5% (95% CI, 7.2%-35.2%) for individuals age <65 years and 78.4% (95% CI, 71.1%-83.9%) and 36.2% (95% CI, 27.7%-43.6%) vs 66.3% (95% CI, 55.7%-74.4%) and -23.3% (95% CI, -40.5% to -8.2%) in subjects age ≥65 years; against hospitalization 92.0% (95% CI, 76.1%-97.3%) and 83.1% (95% CI, 66.8%-91.4%) vs 85.6% (95% CI, 72.6%-92.4%) and 57.0% (95% CI, 31.2%-73.2%) in subjects age <65 years and 66.1% (95% CI, 45.3%-79.0%) and 64.7% (95% CI, 55.2%-72.3%) vs 61.0% (95% CI, 41.3%-74.2%) and 1.7% (95% CI, -22.0% to 20.8%) in those age ≥65 years; against ICU admission or death 89.2% (95% CI, 49.5%-97.7%) and 84.4% (95% CI, 59.0%-94.1%) vs 87.6% (95% CI, 61.0%-96.1%) and 66.4% (95% CI, 7.7%-87.8%) in subjects age <65 years and 75.4% (95% CI, 51.7%-87.5%) and 73.8 (95% CI, 62.9%-81.5%) vs 67.4% (95% CI, 32.6%-84.3%) and 29.3% (95% CI, 2.3%-48.9%) in subjects age ≥65 years, respectively (P interaction < .01 for all comparisons). Similarly, mRNA-1273 was more effective than BNT162b2 in veterans with >1 chronic disease. Conclusions: mRNA-1273 was more effective than BNT162b2 in older veterans and those with chronic diseases.

Type of mRNA COVID-19 vaccine and immunomodulatory treatment influence humoral immunogenicity in patients with inflammatory rheumatic diseases.

Patients with inflammatory rheumatic diseases (IRD) are at increased risk for worse COVID-19 outcomes. Identifying whether mRNA vaccines differ in immunogenicity and examining the effects of immunomodulatory treatments may support COVID-19 vaccination strategies. We aimed to conduct a long-term, model-based comparison of the humoral immunogenicity following BNT162b2 and mRNA-1273 vaccination in a cohort of IRD patients. Patients from the Swiss IRD cohort (SCQM), who assented to mRNA COVID-19 vaccination were recruited between 3/2021-9/2021. Blood samples at baseline, 4, 12, and 24 weeks post second vaccine dose were tested for anti-SARS-CoV-2 spike IgG (anti-S1). We examined differences in antibody levels depending on the vaccine and treatment at baseline while adjusting for age, disease, and past SARS-CoV-2 infection. 565 IRD patients provided eligible samples. Among monotherapies, rituximab, abatacept, JAKi, and TNFi had the highest odds of reduced anti-S1 responses compared to no medication. Patients on specific combination therapies showed significantly lower antibody responses than those on monotherapy. Irrespective of the disease, treatment, and past SARS-CoV-2 infection, the odds of higher antibody levels at 4, 12, and 24 weeks post second vaccine dose were, respectively, 3.4, 3.8, and 3.8 times higher with mRNA-1273 versus BNT162b2 (p < 0.0001). With every year of age, the odds ratio of higher peak humoral immunogenicity following mRNA-1273 versus BNT162b2 increased by 5% (p < 0.001), indicating a particular benefit for elderly patients. Our results suggest that in IRD patients, two-dose vaccination with mRNA-1273 versus BNT162b2 results in higher anti-S1 levels, even more so in elderly patients.

Unraveling the dynamics of the Omicron and Delta variants of the 2019 coronavirus in the presence of vaccination, mask usage, and antiviral treatment.

The effectiveness of control interventions against COVID-19 is threatened by the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern. We present a mathematical model for studying the transmission dynamics of two of these variants (Delta and Omicron) in the United States, in the presence of vaccination, treatment of individuals with clinical symptoms of the disease and the use of face masks. The model is parameterized and cross-validated using observed daily case data for COVID-19 in the United States for the period from November 2021 (when Omicron first emerged) to March 2022. Rigorous qualitative analysis of the model shows that the disease-free equilibrium of the model is locally-asymptotically stable when the control reproduction number of the model (denoted by R c ) is less than one. This equilibrium is shown to be globally-asymptotically stable for a special case of the model, where disease-induced mortality is negligible and both vaccine-derived immunity in fully-vaccinated individuals and natural immunity do not wane, when the associated reproduction number is less than one. The epidemiological implication of the latter result is that the combined vaccination-boosting strategy can lead to the elimination of the pandemic if its implementation can bring (and maintain) the associated reproduction number to a value less than one. An analytical expression for the vaccine-derived herd immunity threshold is derived. Using this expression, together with the baseline values of the parameters of the parameterized model, we showed that the vaccine-derived herd immunity can be achieved in the United States (so that the pandemic will be eliminated) if at least 68 % of the population is fully-vaccinated with two of the three vaccines approved for use in the United States (Pfizer or Moderna vaccine). Furthermore, this study showed (as of the time of writing in March 2022) that the control reproduction number of the Omicron variant was approximately 3.5 times that of the Delta variant (the reproduction of the latter is computed to be ≈ 0.2782 ), indicating that Delta had practically died out and that Omicron has competitively-excluded Delta (to become the predominant variant in the United States). Based on our analysis and parameterization at the time of writing of this paper (March 2022), our study suggests that SARS-CoV-2 elimination is feasible by June 2022 if the current baseline level of the coverage of fully-vaccinated individuals is increased by about 20 % . The prospect of pandemic elimination is significantly improved if vaccination is combined with a face mask strategy that prioritizes moderately effective and high-quality masks. Having a high percentage of the populace wearing the moderately-effective surgical mask is more beneficial to the community than having low percentage of the populace wearing the highly-effective N95 masks. We showed that waning natural and vaccine-derived immunity (if considered individually) offer marginal impact on disease burden, except for the case when they wane at a much faster rate (e.g., within three months), in comparison to the baseline (estimated to be within 9 months to a year). Treatment of symptomatic individuals has marginal effect in reducing daily cases of SARS-CoV-2, in comparison to the baseline, but it has significant impact in reducing daily hospitalizations. Furthermore, while treatment significantly reduces daily hospitalizations (and, consequently, deaths), the prospects of COVID-19 elimination in the United States are significantly enhanced if investments in control resources are focused on mask usage and vaccination rather than on treatment.

Expert review of global real-world data on COVID-19 vaccine booster effectiveness and safety during the omicron-dominant phase of the pandemic.

INTRODUCTION: COVID-19 vaccines have been highly effective in reducing morbidity and mortality during the pandemic. However, the emergence of the Omicron variant and subvariants as the globally dominant strains have raised doubts about the effectiveness of currently available vaccines and prompted debate about potential future vaccination strategies. AREAS COVERED: Using the publicly available IVAC VIEW-hub platform, we reviewed 52 studies on vaccine effectiveness (VE) after booster vaccinations. VE were reported for SARS-CoV-2 symptomatic infection, severe disease and death and stratified by vaccine schedule and age. In addition, a non-systematic literature review of safety was performed to identify single or multi-country studies investigating adverse event rates for at least two of the currently available COVID-19 vaccines. EXPERT OPINION: Booster shots of the current COVID-19 vaccines provide consistently high protection against Omicron-related severe disease and death. Additionally, this protection appears to be conserved for at least 3 months, with a small but significant waning after that. The positive risk-benefit ratio of these vaccines is well established, giving us confidence to administer additional doses as required. Future vaccination strategies will likely include a combination of schedules based on risk profile, as overly frequent boosting may be neither beneficial nor sustainable for the general population.

Durability of immune responses after boosting in Ad26.COV2.S-primed healthcare workers.

The emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants raised questions regarding the durability of immune responses after homologous or heterologous booster vaccination after Ad26.COV2.S priming. We found that SARS-CoV-2-specific binding antibodies, neutralizing antibodies and T-cells are detectable 5 months after boosting, although waning of antibodies and limited cross-reactivity with Omicron BA.1 was observed.

Waning of humoral immunity depending on the types of COVID-19 vaccine.

BACKGROUND: There are limited data on the rates of the waning of antibody levels after two-dose and booster vaccination according to the different platforms of COVID-19 vaccines. METHODS: We enrolled healthcare workers (HCWs) in a tertiary care hospital who received homologous two-dose vaccination, followed by a homologous or heterologous booster mRNA vaccine. SARS-CoV-2 S1-specific IgG was measured using ELISA. A linear mixed regression model was used to compare the slope from the peak antibody titre to the lowest antibody titres 3 months after vaccination. RESULTS: A total of 113 HCWs (BNT162b2 (n = 48 [42%]), ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 (n = 52 [46%]) or mRNA-1273 (n = 13 [12%])) were enrolled in this prospective cohort study. More gradual antibody waning was observed over 3 months with the two-dose ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 (ChAdOx1) than with the two-dose BNT162b2 or mRNA-1273 (p < 0.001 and p = 0.001, respectively). In addition, homologous mRNA-1273 booster induced a more durable antibody response than homologous BNT162b2 booster (p < 0.001) or heterologous ChAdOx1-BNT162b2 booster (p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Two-dose homologous ChAdOx1 vaccination or homologous mRNA-1273 booster appears to induce more-durable antibody responses than 2-dose homologous mRNA vaccination, homologous BNT162b2 booster, or 2-dose ChAdOx1 followed by BNT62b2 booster, although our findings are based on the relatively short term (3-month) follow-up after the vaccinations and the evaluation of the slopes from different antibody peak levels. Further studies on long-term durability depending on the types of vaccines are needed.

Upper respiratory tract mucosal immunity for SARS-CoV-2 vaccines.

SARS-CoV-2 vaccination significantly reduces morbidity and mortality, but has less impact on viral transmission rates, thus aiding viral evolution, and the longevity of vaccine-induced immunity rapidly declines. Immune responses in respiratory tract mucosal tissues are crucial for early control of infection, and can generate long-term antigen-specific protection with prompt recall responses. However, currently approved SARS-CoV-2 vaccines are not amenable to adequate respiratory mucosal delivery, particularly in the upper airways, which could account for the high vaccine breakthrough infection rates and limited duration of vaccine-mediated protection. In view of these drawbacks, we outline a strategy that has the potential to enhance both the efficacy and durability of existing SARS-CoV-2 vaccines, by inducing robust memory responses in the upper respiratory tract (URT) mucosa.

Durability of Vaccine-Induced and Natural Immunity Against COVID-19: A Narrative Review.

Vaccines developed against SARS-CoV-2 have proven to be highly effective in preventing symptomatic infection. Similarly, prior infection with SARS-CoV-2 has been shown to provide substantial protection against reinfection. However, it has become apparent that the protection provided to an individual after either vaccination or infection wanes over time. Waning protection is driven by both waning immunity over time since vaccination or initial infection, and the evolution of new variants of SARS-CoV-2. Both antibody and T/B-cells levels have been investigated as potential correlates of protection post-vaccination or post-infection. The activity of antibodies and T/B-cells provide some potential insight into the underlying causes of waning protection. This review seeks to summarise what is currently known about the waning of protection provided by both vaccination and/or prior infection, as well as the current information on the respective antibody and T/B-cell responses.

Projecting the COVID-19 immune landscape in Japan in the presence of waning immunity and booster vaccination.

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) booster vaccination has been implemented globally in the midst of surges in infection due to the Delta and Omicron variants of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). The objective of the present study was to present a framework to estimate the proportion of the population that is immune to symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection with the Omicron variant (immune proportion) in Japan, considering the waning of immunity resulting from vaccination and naturally acquired infection. We quantified the decay rate of immunity against symptomatic infection with Omicron conferred by the second and third doses of COVID-19 vaccine. We estimated the current and future vaccination coverage for the second and third vaccine doses from February 17, 2021 to August 1, 2022 and used data on the confirmed COVID-19 incidence from February 17, 2021 to April 10, 2022. From this information, we estimated the age-specific immune proportion over the period from February 17, 2021 to August 1, 2022. Vaccine-induced immunity, conferred by the second vaccine dose in particular, was estimated to rapidly wane. There were substantial variations in the estimated immune proportion by age group because each age cohort experienced different vaccination rollout timing and speed as well as a different infection risk. Such variations collectively contributed to heterogeneous immune landscape trajectories over time and age. The resulting prediction of the proportion of the population that is immune to symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection could aid decision-making on when and for whom another round of booster vaccination should be considered. This manuscript was submitted as part of a theme issue on "Modelling COVID-19 and Preparedness for Future Pandemics".

Real-Time Monitoring of the Effectiveness of Six COVID-19 Vaccines against Laboratory-Confirmed COVID-19 in Hungary in 2021 Using the Screening Method.

Several studies have reported the waning effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines. This study aims to demonstrate the applicability of the screening method for estimating vaccine effectiveness (VE) in a pandemic. We report VE in Hungary, estimated with the screening method, in 2021, covering a period of Alpha and the Delta variant, including the booster dose roll-out. Hungary is in a unique position to use six different vaccines in the same population. All vaccines provided a high level of protection initially, which declined over time. While the picture is different in each age group, the waning of immunity is apparent for all vaccines, especially in the younger age groups and the Sinopharm, Sputnik-V, and AstraZeneca vaccines, which performed similarly. This is clearly reversed by booster doses, more prominent for those three vaccines, where the decline in protection is more evident. Overall, two vaccines, Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna, tend to produce the best results in all age groups, even with waning immunity considered. Using the screening method in future pandemic waves is worthwhile, especially in countries struggling with a lack of resources or when there is a need to deliver VE results within a short timeframe due to urgent decision-making.

Susceptibility to Resurgent COVID-19 Outbreaks Following Vaccine Rollouts: A Modeling Study.

Using the recently proposed Susceptible-Asymptomatic-Infected-Vaccinated-Removed (SAIVR) model, we study the impact of key factors affecting COVID-19 vaccine rollout effectiveness and the susceptibility to resurgent epidemics. The SAIVR model expands the widely used Susceptible-Infectious-Removed (SIR) model for describing epidemics by adding compartments to include the asymptomatic infected (A) and the vaccinated (V) populations. We solve the model numerically to make predictions on the susceptibility to resurgent COVID-19 epidemics depending on initial vaccination coverage, importation loads, continuing vaccination, and more contagious SARS-CoV-2 variants, under persistent immunity and immunity waning conditions. The parameters of the model represent reported epidemiological characteristics of the SARS-CoV-2 virus such as the disease spread in countries with high levels of vaccination coverage. Our findings help explain how the combined effects of different vaccination coverage levels and waning immunity lead to distinct patterns of resurgent COVID-19 epidemics (either surges or endemic), which are observed in countries that implemented different COVID-19 health policies and achieved different vaccinated population plateaus after the vaccine rollouts in the first half of 2021.

Effectiveness of vaccination against SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant infection, symptomatic disease, and hospitalization: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: This meta-analysis aims to assess the effectiveness of the current Sars-Cov2 vaccine regimens against Omicron infection. A secondary endpoint aims to investigate the waning effectiveness of primary vaccination against symptomatic infection and related hospitalization. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: The systematic review started on 1 December 2021 and was concluded on 1 March 2022. Random-effects frequentist meta-analyses and multiple meta-regressions were performed. RESULTS: In total, 15 studies are included in the quantitative synthesis. According to the meta-analysis results, the overall risk of Sars-Cov2 infection in vaccinated individuals is on average 31 · 5% lower than the infection risk in unvaccinated while vaccinated with one booster dose have a 70 · 4% risk reduction of Omicron infection compared to unvaccinated. In particular, one booster dose significantly decreases by 69% the risk of symptomatic Omicron infection with respect to unvaccinated. Six months after the primary vaccination, the average risk reduction declines to 22% against symptomatic infection and to 55% against hospitalization. CONCLUSIONS: Primary vaccination does not provide sufficient protection against symptomatic Omicron infection. Although the effectiveness of the primary vaccination against hospitalization due to Omicron remains significantly above 50% after 3 months, it dramatically fades after 6 months.